The Housing Market Takes a Dramatic Turn as Sales Flatten in October

Home sales stalled in October, increasing just 0.3 percent from last year, an abrupt slowdown from September’s double-digit growth. Twenty-seven of 67 metros tracked by Redfin had fewer transactions, including hot markets like Seattle, Denver, Austin, Miami and Dallas.
When compared to September, sales slowed everywhere last month but in San Francisco, Buffalo, Allentown and Miami.
Nationwide, the median sale price rose 6 percent in October, consistent with year-over-year gains posted in the past four months. 
The sharp downturn in transactions was more than a typical seasonal slowdown, but it’s not yet apparent why it happened. A shortage of homes for sale, rain in parts of the country, and new federal rules on closings all might have played a part. In addition, sales were particularly robust in October 2014, which made last month slower by comparison.

Market Summary October 2015 Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Median sale price $264,600 -0.1% 5.9%
Homes sold 162,600 -7.3% 0.2%
New listings 219,800 -4.5% 3.5%
All Homes for sale 587,400 -1.6% -4.3%
Median days on market 37 2 -7
Off market in 2 weeks 28.0% -1.5% 5.1%
Months of supply 3.6 0.2 -0.2
Sold above list 18.6% -0.9% 2.0%
Average Sale-to-list 91.7% -0.1% 0.3%

 
The supply of homes for sale remained tight, particularly in Miami and on the West Coast. Nationwide, inventory fell 4.3 percent from a year ago. The number of new listings grew at their slowest pace since since May, up 3.5 percent from a year ago.
 
National change in median price
Despite the sales slowdown, more buyers made concessions to persuade sellers to accept their purchase offers. In addition, nearly 16 percent of Redfin offers waived inspection contingencies in October, up from 8.8 percent a year ago, and 10.5 percent waived financing contingencies, up from 7.6 percent.  
 
bids

Other October Highlights

Prices

Sales

  • Only four metros – San Francisco (12.4%), Buffalo (4.0%), Allentown (2.9%), and Miami (0.6%)–had an increase in sales compared to September.
  • Richmond, VA, had the highest sales growth, up 23.0% from last year.  San Antonio came in a close second, with 15.8% more homes sold than last year. San Antonio has posted the longest streak of double digit-growth, at 11 months.  

Competition

  • Denver was the fastest market in October, with half of all homes selling in 12 days or less, compared to 11 days in September.
  • Outside of the Bay Area, where homes typically fetch more than asking price, Seattle, Portland, Denver and L.A. were the most competitive metros. In all four markets, sellers got 98% or more of their asking price.

Supply

  • Supply remained extremely low in Oakland (1.3 months of supply), Seattle (1.5 months), and Denver (1.9 months).
  • Sixteen cities added inventory last month, with Tucson (14.7%), Phoenix (12.6%), and Columbus, OH, (12.0%) posting the biggest gains.   
  • Houston had the biggest year-over-year increase in inventory for a second month, up 33.7% in October. Denver followed, with a 31.1% increase.

You can download data from the October Housing Market Tracker in an Excel Spreadsheet.
For additional local analysis, see: Chicago | Los Angeles | San Francisco | Washington, D.C.

Median Sale Price

Redfin Metro Median Sale Price Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Akron, OH $119,000 -9.8% 3.3%
Albany, NY $198,000 -5.7% 5.0%
Allentown, PA $175,000 2.9% 2.9%
Atlanta, GA $190,000 -1.0% 7.3%
Austin, TX $257,450 1.0% 7.3%
Baltimore, MD $235,000 0.0% 0.0%
Boston, MA $327,175 -0.3% 3.9%
Buffalo, NY $129,900 -4.1% 0.0%
Charleston, SC $228,000 -3.6% 3.6%
Charlotte, NC $188,500 -3.3% 4.4%
Chicago, IL $199,000 -2.9% 8.2%
Cincinnati, OH $140,000 -5.4% -1.1%
Cleveland, OH $125,000 -6.7% 1.6%
Columbus, OH $159,000 -3.8% 2.7%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX $213,995 1.9% 12.6%
Dayton, OH $111,000 1.0% 0.9%
Denver, CO $310,000 1.3% 14.0%
Detroit-Warren, MI $142,250 -5.2% 7.8%
Fort Lauderdale, FL $200,720 0.4% 14.7%
Fresno, CA $215,000 -2.9% 3.9%
Grand Rapids, MI $143,900 -4.0% 8.2%
Greenville, SC $170,000 4.3% 4.8%
Hampton Roads, VA $205,000 -2.4% 3.0%
Honolulu, HI $510,000 -1.0% 22.9%
Houston, TX $205,000 -1.4% 6.2%
Hudson Valley, NY $400,000 -7.0% 2.7%
Indianapolis, IN $141,950 -5.4% 0.0%
Jacksonville, FL $173,000 -1.1% 3.6%
Las Vegas, NV $200,000 -2.4% 8.4%
Little Rock, AR $150,000 3.3% 4.2%
Long Island, NY $380,000 -1.0% 5.6%
Los Angeles, CA $485,000 0.0% 5.4%
Louisville, KY $159,995 3.2% 6.7%
Memphis, TN $137,500 -9.4% 0.0%
Miami, FL $230,000 -3.8% 4.5%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN $214,125 -2.2% 4.5%
Nashville, TN $223,000 -3.0% 6.7%
New Orleans, LA $183,750 -1.3% 5.2%
North Port, FL $225,000 0.7% 16.9%
Oakland, CA $565,000 -2.6% 5.6%
Omaha, NE $160,000 0.6% 4.9%
Orange County, CA $584,763 -2.5% 2.6%
Orlando, FL $180,000 -2.9% 10.8%
Philadelphia, PA $230,000 -1.1% 4.5%
Phoenix, AZ $215,000 0.0% 10.3%
Portland, OR $299,900 1.0% 7.5%
Providence, RI $205,000 -4.2% 0.1%
Raleigh-Durham, NC $225,307 0.1% 6.3%
Richmond, VA $209,700 1.8% 8.7%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA $299,000 -0.3% 6.8%
Rochester, NY $130,000 0.0% 4.4%
Sacramento, CA $315,000 0.0% 6.8%
San Antonio, TX $187,250 -2.5% 10.2%
San Diego, CA $465,000 0.3% 4.5%
San Francisco, CA $1,055,000 5.8% 13.5%
San Jose, CA $839,500 3.5% 12.7%
Seattle, WA $400,750 1.5% 10.7%
Tacoma, WA $250,000 0.0% 8.7%
Tampa, FL $165,000 0.0% 6.5%
Tucson, AZ $176,000 1.1% 3.5%
Tulsa, OK $147,000 -4.9% -0.7%
Ventura County, CA $528,500 2.0% 6.8%
Washington, DC $350,000 0.0% 0.0%
West Palm Beach, FL $218,000 -2.2% 9.0%
Wilmington, DE $210,000 -1.6% 5.0%
National $264,600 -0.1% 5.9%

Homes Sold

Redfin Metro Homes Sold Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Akron, OH 799 -1.6% 1.0%
Albany, NY 664 -16.1% -6.9%
Allentown, PA 671 2.9% 2.6%
Atlanta, GA 7,484 -8.1% 2.5%
Austin, TX 2,230 -15.1% -5.5%
Baltimore, MD 2,994 -2.6% 12.6%
Boston, MA 6,259 -6.8% 7.9%
Buffalo, NY 1,011 4.0% 1.0%
Charleston, SC 1,138 -15.5% -0.4%
Charlotte, NC 2,415 -13.8% -0.9%
Chicago, IL 8,978 -6.7% -1.3%
Cincinnati, OH 1,901 -9.2% 4.2%
Cleveland, OH 2,168 -7.0% 6.7%
Columbus, OH 2,006 -8.0% -1.5%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 6,803 -13.0% -6.4%
Dayton, OH 868 -13.0% -5.2%
Denver, CO 4,474 -8.3% -2.0%
Detroit-Warren, MI 1,741 -6.1% 2.7%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 2,809 -2.3% 0.1%
Fresno, CA 699 -3.7% 3.2%
Grand Rapids, MI 1,110 -2.0% 8.5%
Greenville, SC 669 -16.5% -11.0%
Hampton Roads, VA 1,502 -12.9% -3.0%
Honolulu, HI 753 -7.8% -15.2%
Houston, TX 5,998 -12.7% -4.9%
Hudson Valley, NY 1,150 -0.1% 12.5%
Indianapolis, IN 2,255 -6.0% -6.7%
Jacksonville, FL 1,737 -13.0% -5.3%
Las Vegas, NV 2,943 -7.5% 0.8%
Little Rock, AR 729 -9.7% 7.2%
Long Island, NY 2,323 -2.9% 2.7%
Los Angeles, CA 5,825 -4.0% 0.1%
Louisville, KY 1,244 -3.0% 5.9%
Memphis, TN 873 -12.8% -12.3%
Miami, FL 2,691 0.6% -9.8%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 4,479 -9.8% 2.0%
Nashville, TN 2,707 -11.5% 14.6%
New Orleans, LA 1,021 -11.7% -3.3%
North Port, FL 1,518 -3.7% -8.6%
Oakland, CA 2,408 -4.3% -5.2%
Omaha, NE 980 -1.8% 7.8%
Orange County, CA 2,337 -9.7% -0.9%
Orlando, FL 3,237 -8.3% -4.6%
Philadelphia, PA 3,720 -3.2% 3.3%
Phoenix, AZ 5,959 -9.5% 1.5%
Portland, OR 3,367 -7.1% 4.1%
Providence, RI 851 -0.6% 9.7%
Raleigh-Durham, NC 2,303 -0.9% 0.2%
Richmond, VA 1,294 -1.7% 23.0%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 4,219 -5.3% 0.4%
Rochester, NY 1,033 -2.6% 1.4%
Sacramento, CA 2,614 -7.4% 3.1%
San Antonio, TX 2,072 -10.0% 15.8%
San Diego, CA 2,727 -7.8% -3.9%
San Francisco, CA 1,205 12.4% -18.7%
San Jose, CA 1,274 -4.6% -9.1%
Seattle, WA 3,813 -7.7% -0.8%
Tacoma, WA 1,078 -9.8% 5.5%
Tampa, FL 4,497 -3.8% 2.7%
Tucson, AZ 1,050 -7.0% 4.2%
Tulsa, OK 1,040 -2.6% 3.8%
Ventura County, CA 749 -6.7% 5.8%
Washington, DC 5,877 -8.1% 2.9%
West Palm Beach, FL 2,569 -5.0% -7.0%
Wilmington, DE 688 -2.7% 12.8%
National 162,600 -7.3% 0.2%

New Listings

Redfin Metro New Listings Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Akron, OH 1,055 1.2% 0.6%
Albany, NY 1,034 -9.5% -2.5%
Allentown, PA 1,142 -9.4% 3.4%
Atlanta, GA 8,337 -2.2% 0.9%
Austin, TX 2,831 -1.3% 0.5%
Baltimore, MD 4,661 -3.6% 4.5%
Boston, MA 8,094 -17.7% 6.6%
Buffalo, NY 1,189 -4.3% 3.8%
Charleston, SC 1,309 -23.6% -8.7%
Chicago, IL 14,021 -8.5% 0.8%
Cincinnati, OH 2,469 -10.1% -4.9%
Cleveland, OH 2,924 -7.3% 8.3%
Columbus, OH 2,397 -9.4% 4.8%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 8,676 -4.9% 7.9%
Dayton, OH 1,332 -0.4% 5.5%
Denver, CO 5,143 -8.4% 16.0%
Detroit-Warren, MI 8,492 -3.4% 18.0%
Fort Lauderdale, FL 1,643 15.7% 17.3%
Fresno, CA 969 2.4% 1.0%
Grand Rapids, MI 1,214 -4.2% 0.0%
Greenville, SC 845 -6.5% -11.6%
Hampton Roads, VA 2,519 -2.0% -5.6%
Honolulu, HI 916 -9.9% 0.9%
Houston, TX 9,362 -3.8% 17.8%
Hudson Valley, NY 1,473 -19.5% 2.4%
Indianapolis, IN 3,257 -4.6% 3.1%
Jacksonville, FL 2,426 -2.0% -1.7%
Las Vegas, NV 4,283 -4.8% -1.7%
Little Rock, AR 1,165 -5.5% 0.3%
Long Island, NY 3,191 -8.1% -6.0%
Los Angeles, CA 8,274 -1.5% 0.8%
Louisville, KY 1,594 -11.5% -1.1%
Memphis, TN 1,386 0.9% 5.5%
Miami, FL 2,432 12.2% 5.5%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 5,588 -8.6% -2.6%
Nashville, TN 3,826 -5.5% 14.5%
New Orleans, LA 1,591 -3.9% -1.4%
North Port, FL 2,123 8.9% 2.3%
Oakland, CA 2,656 -13.5% -1.3%
Omaha, NE 1,388 -3.9% -1.4%
Orange County, CA 3,313 -1.1% 16.4%
Orlando, FL 4,318 0.5% -9.6%
Philadelphia, PA 5,417 -8.8% -4.5%
Phoenix, AZ 9,627 8.4% 3.1%
Portland, OR 3,678 -9.4% 6.2%
Providence, RI 1,275 -10.0% -1.6%
Raleigh-Durham, NC 2,766 -3.8% 4.1%
Richmond, VA 1,757 -9.3% -1.8%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 7,671 11.0% 13.0%
Rochester, NY 1,401 -19.0% -4.8%
San Antonio, TX 2,874 -2.2% 13.1%
San Diego, CA 3,861 -2.4% -5.8%
San Francisco, CA 1,611 -13.3% 12.3%
San Jose, CA 1,395 -16.5% -1.9%
Seattle, WA 4,062 -9.8% -1.8%
Tacoma, WA 1,265 -4.2% 9.4%
Tampa, FL 5,779 6.4% -3.5%
Tucson, AZ 1,811 7.0% -0.9%
Tulsa, OK 1,628 -4.4% 0.5%
Ventura County, CA 880 -3.5% 3.8%
Washington, DC 9,093 -9.5% 4.9%
West Palm Beach, FL 4,095 14.9% 3.8%
Wilmington, DE 1,044 -4.4% 2.5%
National 219,800 -4.5% 3.5%

All Homes for Sale

Redfin Metro All Homes for Sale Month-Over-Month Year-Over-Year
Akron, OH 3,591 -1.0% -5.8%
Albany, NY 4,894 -7.0% -5.3%
Allentown, PA 5,326 -4.1% 9.3%
Atlanta, GA 23,804 -5.1% -5.2%
Austin, TX 6,212 -5.1% -1.7%
Baltimore, MD 14,047 -4.1% -5.0%
Boston, MA 21,865 -7.7% -9.7%
Buffalo, NY 5,998 -8.5% -9.2%
Charleston, SC 6,101 -4.6% -11.9%
Chicago, IL 46,287 3.4% 7.7%
Cincinnati, OH 9,823 -4.9% -11.7%
Cleveland, OH 11,151 -0.7% -4.1%
Columbus, OH 7,335 12.0% 3.2%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 16,877 -1.5% -1.0%
Dayton, OH 4,740 -0.8% -7.6%
Denver, CO 8,723 8.2% 31.1%
Detroit-Warren, MI 18,145 -6.2% 0.2%
Fresno, CA 2,228 -5.1% -6.1%
Grand Rapids, MI 3,102 -6.6% -44.6%
Greenville, SC 3,252 6.7% -5.8%
Hampton Roads, VA 9,184 -2.1% -4.5%
Honolulu, HI 3,307 -8.9% -4.6%
Houston, TX 22,825 -2.5% 33.7%
Hudson Valley, NY 9,120 4.9% 20.7%
Indianapolis, IN 10,519 -4.8% -19.8%
Jacksonville, FL 7,519 -8.6% -28.9%
Las Vegas, NV 14,778 -0.3% -3.6%
Little Rock, AR 4,573 2.1% -1.6%
Long Island, NY 15,117 -6.3% -6.5%
Los Angeles, CA 15,619 -1.6% -9.7%
Louisville, KY 4,351 -4.5% -34.8%
Miami, FL 6,391 2.4% -5.5%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 14,505 -7.3% -14.9%
Nashville, TN 9,164 -2.7% -9.9%
North Port, FL 5,906 5.4% -8.3%
Oakland, CA 3,232 -13.4% -14.9%
Omaha, NE 2,806 -1.7% -19.8%
Orange County, CA 7,607 3.2% 12.2%
Orlando, FL 12,482 -3.7% -16.6%
Philadelphia, PA 20,993 -4.5% -9.4%
Phoenix, AZ 21,423 12.6% -8.0%
Portland, OR 6,384 -11.8% -29.2%
Providence, RI 4,320 -1.5% -2.5%
Raleigh-Durham, NC 9,007 9.5% -0.1%
Richmond, VA 5,006 -3.9% -8.4%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 17,586 6.8% 10.6%
San Antonio, TX 7,593 0.3% 8.4%
San Diego, CA 6,950 -7.4% -20.1%
San Francisco, CA 2,432 -3.1% 2.8%
San Jose, CA 2,503 -12.0% -18.0%
Seattle, WA 5,857 -12.4% -32.2%
Tacoma, WA 2,848 -9.3% -26.0%
Tampa, FL 15,653 -0.1% -15.2%
Tucson, AZ 5,452 14.7% 3.4%
Tulsa, OK 6,308 -3.0% 22.1%
Ventura County, CA 1,761 -7.7% -14.4%
Washington, DC 22,455 -4.9% 0.6%
West Palm Beach, FL 11,924 11.0% -3.6%
Wilmington, DE 3,902 -4.9% -7.4%
National 587,400 -1.6% -4.3%

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Nela Richardson

Nela leads Redfin’s housing market research team on data reports that help Redfin customers make informed choices. She comes to Redfin from Bloomberg LP, where she served as a senior economist with Bloomberg Government. She also served in past roles in the mortgage industry, capital markets and financial policy. Redfin is a full-service real estate brokerage that uses modern technology to make clients smarter and faster. For more information about working with a Redfin real estate agent to buy or sell a home, visit our “Why Redfin?,” page.

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