- Swing-state housing payments have nearly doubled since the 2020 election, as home prices and mortgage rates have soared.
- To look at affordability another way, the typical swing-state home has gone from affordable to unaffordable for the typical family since the 2020 election. The typical family would spend 33% of their earnings to afford the median-priced home in a swing state; back in 2020, they would have spent 22% of their earnings.
- Just over one-third of all homes listed for sale in swing states so far this year were affordable to a household earning the median income, down from two-thirds in 2020.
- Broken down by race, a family earning the median swing-state income for Black households would spend nearly half of their earnings on the typical home, up from one-third of their earnings in 2020. The typical swing-state home is just barely affordable to white families.
The median monthly housing payment for homebuyers in swing states has nearly doubled since the 2020 presidential election, rising 92% to an all-time high of $2,161, as both home prices and mortgage rates have soared.
This report is based on a Redfin analysis of housing-market data and incomes for blue (Democratic-leaning), red (Republican-leaning) and swing states, from 2016-2024. The data is annual for 2016-2023; the 2024 data includes January through May. Please see the end of this report for more on methodology.
Housing costs have also skyrocketed in red and blue states since 2020: Homebuyers’ median housing payment has risen 95% to a record $2,066 in red states and 83% to a record $3,311 in blue states. This report focuses on swing states because voters in those states will decide the winner of the 2024 presidential election, and housing affordability–or lack thereof–is a crucial issue on voters’ minds. We consider this year’s swing states to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
The median home-sale price in swing states have increased nearly 40% over that period, reaching a record high of $316,063 in 2024. The average mortgage rate is currently 6.89%, more than double the record low of 2.65% at the start of 2021—intensifying affordability challenges even further.
Typical swing-state home has gone from affordable to unaffordable for the average family since the 2020 election
The steep increase in prices and mortgage rates has made the median-priced home ($316,063) unaffordable to the typical swing-state resident, using the rule of thumb that a household should spend no more than 30% of their income on monthly housing costs.
A household earning the median swing-state income ($79,155) would spend 32.8% of their earnings to afford the typical home; back in 2020, that same household would have had to spend a much smaller share of their income (21.8%) on the typical home.
The affordability trajectory in red states has been very similar to that of swing states. A household earning the median red-state income would spend 32.9% of their income on the median-priced home, up from 21.4% in 2020. In blue states, a household earning the median income would spend 41.3% of their income on the median-priced home, up from 28.6% in 2020.
A swing-state family must earn $86,421 if they want to spend no more than 30% of their income on payments for the median-priced home. That’s nearly double the $45,140 they needed to earn in 2020.
Just one-third of swing-state listings are affordable to the typical family, down from two-thirds in 2020
To look at affordability another way, just over one-third (35.1%) of all homes listed for sale in swing states so far this year were affordable to a household earning the median income, down from two-thirds (65.5%) in 2020.
In red states, just over one-third (36.6%) of listings are affordable on the median income, down from 69% in 2020. In blue states, just one-quarter (25.2%) of homes are affordable on the median income, down from half (50%) in 2020.
Housing affordability is a major factor in this year’s presidential election
More than nine in 10 adult Gen Zers say housing affordability is important when deciding who to vote for in the upcoming presidential election, making it a top issue for voters of that generation, according to a Redfin-commissioned survey fielded in February. While several other topics have since risen to the forefront of election news–including President Biden’s age, an assassination attempt at a rally for Donald Trump and the announcement of Trump’s running mate–housing affordability is a mainstay in politics because it directly impacts nearly everyone in the country.
“Voters in swing states care about housing affordability because soaring home prices and mortgage rates, along with a shortage of homes for sale, have made homeownership feel impossible for some Americans. That’s especially true for young people who are earning low incomes and haven’t yet built up their savings, making them feel it would be an uphill battle to reach their parents’ level of financial success,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “While swing states have historically had lower housing costs than blue states–and most still do–markets in swing states have not been immune to the affordability crunch the country has been facing for the last several years. The inability to afford a home is making a lot of voters feel bad about the economy and their financial prospects.”
The flip slide of rising housing costs is that it also means home values are rising, which is a boon to homeowners’ pocketbooks. The average U.S. homeowner has seen their home’s value increase significantly over the last several years, which means many of them are holding a lot of wealth via housing equity. Still, at least 80% of millennials, Gen Xers and baby boomers–who are more likely than younger Americans to own a home–said housing affordability will factor into their vote in the upcoming presidential election. That’s partly because some people who already own homes would like to move up to a bigger or better home, but are unable to do so because the increase in housing costs has outpaced the increase in their equity, and because mortgage rates have risen so much they’re reluctant to give up their low rate.
President Biden has released a plan to lower housing costs. Donald Trump has said he has a strategy to combat the expensive housing market.
Homes have become unaffordable in swing states–and red and blue states– because housing costs have increased faster than incomes
Homes in swing states have gone from affordable to unaffordable because housing costs have increased more than three times faster than incomes. The estimated median household income in swing states is $79,155, up 28% from $62,019 in 2020. As stated above, the median monthly housing payment has risen 92% over that period.
Housing costs have skyrocketed faster than incomes mostly because of the pandemic-fueled homebuying frenzy: Remote work and ultra-low mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021 drove up demand, which pushed up prices. Homebuying demand was especially strong in Sun Belt swing states at the height of the pandemic: Phoenix, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Charlotte, NC, were all among the 10 U.S. metros that gained the most residents in 2021.
Now, high mortgage rates and a shortage of homes for sale are driving up costs even more. The good news for aspiring homebuyers is that mortgage rates are likely to decline sometime this year, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates.
Typical Black family would have to spend half of their income to afford a home in swing states
It’s more difficult for Black and Hispanic families to afford homes in swing states than it is for white and Asian families.
A family earning the median swing-state income for Black households would spend nearly half (48.2%) of their earnings to afford the typical home; back in 2020, that same household would have spent 32.7% on the typical home. The typical Hispanic family in a swing state would spend 38.3% of their income on the median-priced home, up from 26.8% in 2020.
The typical home is affordable to median-earning white families in swing states, but just barely: They’d spend 29.8% of their earnings on a home, up from 19.8% in 2020. Asian families would spend 24.8% of their income, up from 16.7% in 2020.
Black and Hispanic voters are set to be especially important in deciding how toss-up states vote this year. President Biden has seen his support among Black voters in swing states decline since 2020.
Housing costs also increased substantially between the 2016 and 2020 elections
This isn’t the first time housing affordability has been an issue in a faceoff between Biden and Trump. Home prices had already soared in advance of the 2020 presidential election, partly because the pandemic housing boom had already begun.
The median home price in swing states increased 40% from 2016 to 2020. It increased by 27% in blue states, and 28% in red states.
Methodology
This report is based on a Redfin analysis of housing-market data and incomes for blue (Democrat-leaning), red (Republican-leaning) and swing (could be either Democratic or Republican) states. We consider this year’s swing states to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. We define blue states as the remaining states that voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election; red states are defined as the remaining set that voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
The analysis includes data for 2016 through 2024. The data is annual for 2016-2023; 2024 includes January through May.
Median household incomes come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). Incomes for 2023 and 2024 are estimated using the ACS 2022 median household income and 12-month moving average nominal wage growth rates compiled from the Current Population Survey and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. For this report, we use the average of yearly median household incomes for each group of states – red, blue and swing–weighted by states’ population.
Median home sale and list prices come from MLS data. We use the average of median monthly home sale and list prices for each year and group of states weighted by the monthly number of homes sold and active listings in each state, respectively. The mortgage rate used to calculate monthly housing payments is the same across the entire U.S, and is defined as the prevailing average mortgage interest rate for the month. Our affordability calculations use the weighted median home-sale and list prices and monthly mortgage rates, in addition to the assumption of a 15% down payment, and includes principal, interest, taxes and insurance. We consider a home “affordable” if a household would spend no more than 30% of their income on monthly housing costs at the for-sale price. We consider a listing “affordable” if a household would spend no more than 30% of their income on monthly housing costs at the list price. The share of listings considered affordable is defined as the number of affordable listings divided by the total number of active listings.
We use the words “household” and “family” interchangeably in this report.
