Mortgages rates will mostly remain unchanged for now after the Fed held rates steady at its March meeting and built in expectations for higher inflation and slower economic growth amidst an extremely uncertain policy backdrop.
In a relief for Wall Street, the Fed maintained their expectation that they will cut twice this year, despite expectations of higher inflation and slower economic growth. As anticipated, there was no policy action today from the Fed on rates. The main story was really in the summary of economic projections, their forecast for future policy and economic outcomes. There, they stuck to their December projection of two rate cuts for 2025, while also increasing their expectation for core inflation to rise from 2.5% to 2.8% by the end of the year, and lowering their expectation for real GDP growth from 2.1% to 1.7%. Digging a layer deeper, even though the median projection for cuts remained at two, a greater share of the committee projected one or no cuts.
In response to apparent contradiction in their projections—that they will continue to cut this year despite expecting to make no progress on inflation—Fed Chair Jerome Powell essentially tossed out the projections, highlighting the unusually uncertain policy environment. The Fed’s new forecast includes no progress at all on inflation for all of 2025. Given that, it’s not clear why they would still expect to cut rates twice. One possibility is that they’re worried about the slower economic growth they penciled in, but in the past Powell has made it clear that he would prioritize fighting inflation over stimulating the economy. Another possibility is that they think the inflation is transitory if prices only adjust once after the implementation of new tariffs. Powell acknowledged that as a possibility, but that assumes no escalation of the trade war and that consumers don’t grow accustomed to expecting high inflation, which is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The final possibility is that we shouldn’t take the projections too seriously because the policy environment is simply too uncertain. In his press conference, Powell seemed to gravitate toward that explanation. He cautioned that writing down a forecast is “an admittedly challenging exercise” in the current environment and, in response to a reporter’s question, sort of threw up his hands, asking “What would you write down?”
Mortgage rates will mostly remain unchanged as investors couple relief that the Fed did not signal fewer rate cuts with uncertainty over the next moves in the ongoing trade war. Announcements from the White House on tariffs on April 2 could move mortgage rates meaningfully in either direction.
