- The majority of America’s most resilient housing markets are located in the Rust Belt and are seeing an increase in home sales and prices.
- The fastest-cooling U.S. markets are concentrated in Sun Belt states, where soaring inventory is causing prices to fall in some places.
The U.S. housing market has been losing steam due to high homebuying costs and economic uncertainty, but some areas—particularly the Rust Belt— are proving more resilient than others.
Milwaukee is holding up better than any other major U.S. housing market, with home sales up 12% year over year, prices up 8.2%, and the typical seller fetching more than their list price.
It’s followed by another Midwest hub: Chicago, which in addition to rising prices and sales is seeing a drop in inventory and an uptick in market speed—also signs of a resilient market. Rounding out the top 10 list are Philadelphia, Minneapolis, New York, Cincinnati, Detroit, Newark, NJ, Pittsburgh, and Virginia Beach, VA.
This is according to a Redfin analysis that ranks U.S. metropolitan areas based on year-over-year changes in the following metrics as of June 2025: homes sold, median sale price per square foot, share of homes that went under contract within two weeks, average sale-to-original-list price ratio, median days on market and inventory. Redfin analyzed the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas and included in this analysis the 49 with sufficient data (Kansas City, MO is the metro excluded).
Here are a few traits the metros holding up best have in common:
- Location: Six of the 10 metros holding up best are in the Rust Belt, whereas the fastest-cooling metros—which we focus on in the final section of this report—are concentrated in the Sun Belt. The Rust Belt, a once-booming steel manufacturing region that grappled with decades of economic decline, is experiencing less out-migration than it has in recent years as the pandemic-era population shift to the South slows.
- Affordability: Home prices are up 5.9% year over year on average across these 10 metros holding up best, compared with a nationwide gain of just 0.5%. Still, most of these metros have prices lower than the national median. Affordability often begets home-price growth because buyers are drawn to affordable places when housing costs are elevated. That said, affordability is relative; many locals have been priced out of Rust Belt markets and would no longer consider these places affordable.
- Rising demand, relatively small gains in supply: Home sales are up 6.4% year over year on average in these 10 metros versus a nationwide gain of 3.8%. Inventory is up 7.3%, compared with a nationwide gain of 11.8%. While supply is rising, it’s still historically low in many of these metros. Limited supply paired with solid demand can fuel homebuyer competition and buoy prices.
In general, the housing markets holding up best are markets where sellers likely have the upper hand, while the markets cooling fastest are more likely to be buyer’s markets where sellers may be open to negotiation.
Milwaukee Homes Are Attracting Bidding Wars, Selling for Above the Asking Price
“Is our market white hot? No. But is it red hot? Yes,” said W.J. Eulberg, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Milwaukee. “Unlike much of the country, Milwaukee is not a buyer’s market. While homes no longer get 15 offers and sell for $80,000 over the asking price like they did during the pandemic, they still get snapped up quickly because we continue to face an inventory shortage.”
Eulberg recently had a listing in South Milwaukee that went live on a Thursday and got an offer within three hours. By Saturday, the seller had seven offers. The home ended up selling for about $50,000 over the $256,000 list price because it was fairly priced, in good shape and in a decent location, he said, adding that Milwaukee’s proximity to Chicago is a selling point for many buyers.
Milwaukee’s inventory shortage is being driven by a variety of factors. Many homeowners are hesitant to put their houses on the market because they don’t want to lose the ultra-low mortgage rate they scored during the pandemic—a trend that rings true across the country. The Midwest (and Northeast) have also been building fewer homes than the South and West, which are now seeing home prices fall in some areas amid a pileup of inventory. There’s not much room left to build in Milwaukee proper, Eulberg said, and many of the homes that have been built in the area recently aren’t priced for the typical first-time buyer.
Las Vegas Is the Fastest-Cooling U.S. Housing Market
Las Vegas is cooling faster than any other major U.S. housing market, with home sales down 10.2% year over year and inventory up a whopping 44.8%—the largest gain among the metros Redfin analyzed. Prices in the pandemic boomtown are unchanged from last year, but the typical home fetches roughly 4% less than its list price. It also takes 51 days to sell—15 days slower than last year. By comparison, the typical U.S. home takes 40 days to sell—just six days slower than last year.
“Buyers have more inventory to choose from than they’ve had in years, so they feel like they can take their time. Even when they find a home they really like, they often wait to find something better,” said Cherra Bergman, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Las Vegas. “House hunters are cost-conscious because mortgage rates are high, so many are opting for new-construction homes since builders here are offering great incentives like mortgage-rate buydowns and money toward closing costs in order to offload inventory.”
Sacramento, CA is the second-fastest-cooling housing market, followed by Denver, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Orlando, FL, San Diego, Miami, Seattle, Washington, D.C. and Oakland, CA.
Many of these metros are home to Sun Belt cities that exploded in popularity during the pandemic, and in turn experienced a surge in home prices and homebuilding. Now, these markets are slowing because the number of homes for sale is rising but there are fewer people who can afford to buy them.
This narrative is especially strong in Florida, which is also grappling with increasing natural disasters and soaring insurance and HOA costs. Three of the 10 metros cooling fastest are in Florida, and three are in California, which faces an especially intense housing affordability crisis.
Prices are now declining in a handful of the fastest cooling markets, down 4.6% year over year in Oakland, and down roughly 1%-2% in Denver, San Diego, Orlando and Fort Lauderdale. In most of these metros, inventory is posting double-digit increases, which causes homes to sit on the market and empowers buyers to negotiate. On average, less than one-third (30.3%) of homes in the 10 metros cooling fastest sell within two weeks, compared with 38% nationwide.
Metro-Level Summary: June 2025
Redfin analyzed the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas and included the 49 with sufficient data, ranked from 1 (holding up best) to 49 (cooling fastest).
| Ranking | Metro area | Median price per square foot, Y/Y change | Homes sold, Y/Y change | Inventory, Y/Y change | Median days on market | Share of homes that went under contract in two weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee, WI | 8.2% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 39 | 62.4% |
| 2 | Chicago, IL | 4.1% | 7.7% | -1.2% | 47 | 51.8% |
| 3 | Philadelphia, PA | 2.7% | 10.1% | 5.5% | 39 | 47.5% |
| 4 | Minneapolis, MN | 1.9% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 20 | 51.8% |
| 5 | New York, NY | 6.7% | 0.7% | 7.8% | 46 | 19.5% |
| 6 | Cincinnati, OH | 4.7% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 37 | 61.7% |
| 7 | Detroit, MI | 7.8% | -4.9% | 7.3% | 19 | 49.7% |
| 8 | Newark, NJ | 11.2% | 1.7% | 14.9% | 21 | 33.2% |
| 9 | Pittsburgh, PA | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 50 | 50.4% |
| 10 | Virginia Beach, VA | 4.6% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 26 | 48.2% |
| 11 | Montgomery County, PA | 5.2% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 21 | 65.7% |
| 12 | San Francisco, CA | -3.0% | 9.5% | -7.5% | 20 | 39.9% |
| 13 | Nassau County, NY | 0.9% | -5.3% | 0.3% | 26 | 12.8% |
| 14 | Providence, RI | 7.7% | 10.0% | 19.2% | 22 | 53.2% |
| 15 | Indianapolis, IN | 1.2% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 15 | 44.1% |
| 16 | New Brunswick, NJ | 2.5% | 6.8% | 15.2% | 28 | 29.4% |
| 17 | Cleveland, OH | 5.0% | 1.6% | 13.4% | 20 | 57.9% |
| 18 | Warren, MI | 2.5% | 6.6% | 19.3% | 16 | 56.5% |
| 19 | Boston, MA | 3.0% | 5.5% | 19.2% | 19 | 59.0% |
| 20 | Columbus, OH | 1.5% | 5.3% | 23.7% | 40 | 55.8% |
| 21 | Houston, TX | -0.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 44 | 25.4% |
| 22 | Nashville, TN | 1.8% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 56 | 28.8% |
| 23 | Fort Worth, TX | -0.8% | 0.1% | 12.9% | 43 | 27.4% |
| 24 | St. Louis, MO | -0.6% | 1.8% | 9.5% | 21 | 57.2% |
| 25 | Charlotte, NC | 0.6% | 10.7% | 22.1% | 52 | 37.4% |
| 26 | San Jose, CA | -0.3% | -2.7% | -3.7% | 17 | 43.5% |
| 27 | Austin, TX | -4.1% | 2.8% | 13.5% | 65 | 19.1% |
| 28 | Portland, OR | -0.4% | -2.3% | 14.2% | 20 | 39.9% |
| 29 | San Antonio, TX | -0.7% | -5.5% | 7.9% | 63 | 16.4% |
| 30 | Baltimore, MD | 3.5% | 4.8% | 20.5% | 26 | 51.5% |
| 31 | Riverside, CA | 0.2% | 4.6% | -51.8% | 50 | 18.6% |
| 32 | Los Angeles, CA | 1.1% | -0.4% | -67.7% | 42 | 24.5% |
| 33 | Atlanta, GA | -1.1% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 44 | 22.2% |
| 34 | Jacksonville, FL | -5.5% | 0.3% | 9.7% | 70 | 20.8% |
| 35 | Anaheim, CA | 1.2% | 1.7% | -60.6% | 44 | 24.2% |
| 35 | Tampa, FL | -2.9% | 0.1% | 10.3% | 40 | 25.9% |
| 37 | West Palm Beach, FL | -2.8% | -7.7% | 9.5% | 88 | 15.2% |
| 38 | Dallas, TX | -2.4% | 9.4% | 30.9% | 46 | 24.7% |
| 39 | Phoenix, AZ | -3.7% | 4.1% | 28.9% | 61 | 18.4% |
| 40 | Oakland, CA | -4.6% | 0.9% | 18.2% | 21 | 32.3% |
| 41 | Washington, D.C. | 2.9% | 4.1% | 29.8% | 36 | 45.5% |
| 42 | Seattle, WA | 2.6% | 5.5% | 37.4% | 11 | 51.7% |
| 43 | Miami, FL | 4.2% | -13.4% | 22.6% | 87 | 12.4% |
| 44 | San Diego, CA | -1.2% | -1.3% | -17.8% | 29 | 27.4% |
| 45 | Orlando, FL | -1.1% | -0.3% | 17.9% | 49 | 24.9% |
| 46 | Fort Lauderdale, FL | -0.9% | -21.7% | 18.3% | 84 | 13.7% |
| 47 | Denver, CO | -1.9% | 4.0% | 30.6% | 24 | 34.7% |
| 48 | Sacramento, CA | 0.2% | 0.7% | 29.3% | 25 | 32.8% |
| 49 | Las Vegas, NV | 0.0% | -10.2% | 44.8% | 51 | 27.1% |
| National—U.S.A. | 0.5% | 3.8% | 11.8% | 40 | 38.0% |
