The Fed held interest rates steady in its meeting on Wednesday, as expected. This marks the first time since July the Fed hasn’t cut rates.
Takeaway: Mortgage rates will stay where they are as the Fed keeps rates unchanged, as anticipated. The Fed said it doesn’t expect to resume cuts for the foreseeable future, as they don’t see a reason to do so.
After cutting the Fed Funds rate by 75 bps in Q4, the Fed will likely hold rates steady until at least this summer as they wait for more economic data. Mortgage rates are unlikely to change much.
- At this point, the Fed’s policy rate is getting pretty close to the neutral rate, which is where the Fed wants to be if they are neither trying to stimulate nor contract the economy. In other words, there’s not much room left for them to cut without clear signs of a recession. A recession is unlikely in a year where the economy will probably benefit from the tax cuts passed last year.
- The risk of a recession has fallen since last year. At the same time, the risk of higher inflation has also fallen. That means Fed policy this year is likely to hold rates where they are.
The real action around the Fed is its fight for independence, and who the next Fed chair will be. But we learned little about those issues today.
- Any big moves in rates right now are unlikely to be driven by monetary policy, and more likely to be driven by who President Trump nominates to be the next Fed chair. Other drivers could be the ongoing criminal investigation into current Chairman Jerome Powell and the Lisa Cook case that’s before the Supreme Court. But, consistent with the Fed’s longstanding process, Chair Powell flatly refused to answer any questions on those issues today.
