Now’s the Time: Late Summer Is the Best Season For Homebuyers to Score a Deal in These U.S. Metros

• Late August is the best time for homebuyers to score a deal in parts of California, Austin, TX and certain New York City suburbs. 
• Mid-September is the prime dealmaking window for buyers in Baltimore, Nashville, Southern California and parts of Texas.
• Late September is the sweet spot for buyers in Houston, Las Vegas, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. 

Late August is prime time for homebuyers to score a bargain in much of California–Anaheim, Oakland, Sacramento and San Jose. The savings sweet spot is the same in Austin, TX, Portland, OR, and two New York City suburbs: Nassau County, NY and Newark, NJ. 

In Atlanta, Denver and Seattle, house hunters may want to hold out just a little longer: The best deals in those metros tend to arrive in early September. 

This is according to a Home Economics and Redfin analysis of housing market data; the analysis was originally completed in April. 

Discounts off a home’s original asking price—through price drops and/or negotiations between buyer and seller—typically grow in late summer and peak in early fall. In some parts of the country, peak discounts arrive a little earlier or a little later. Discounts typically plateau or shrink heading into winter.

“Each homebuyer has their own timeline based on personal circumstances. But seasonality trends suggest buyers in these places looking to score a bargain may want to hit the pavement as summer comes to a close and the leaves start falling,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. “Sellers who put their home in the market in the spring or early summer and haven’t offloaded it yet may be open to dropping their price or offering concessions.”

Early Fall Is the Best Time For Deals in Texas 

Prime dealmaking time comes in mid-September in Texas and Southern California, along with Baltimore, Jacksonville, FL and Nashville, TN. 

Late September is the sweet spot for buyers to get a deal in Houston, Las Vegas, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. 

Another bonus for buyers: Many of the places where the prime dealmaking window is late August or September are buyer’s markets, meaning they hold the negotiating power. In most of Texas, Nashville and Atlanta, for instance, there are roughly twice as many home sellers as buyers in the market. 

“Buyers have the power and the opportunity to get a great deal on a home they would have been priced out of two years ago,” said Vanessa Leimback, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle area. “First-time buyers are getting qualified, applying for first-time homebuyer incentives and getting concessions from sellers–often to help buy down the mortgage rate–and closing the deal. I’m also seeing a lot of homeowners who bought pre-2019 selling their home and using their equity to upgrade to a larger house with more land.”

In places like Nassau County and Newark–both located just outside New York City–which are seller’s markets, buyers may want to pay extra attention to the best time of year to score a deal. 

It’s important for homebuyers to remember that the best time to buy is more complex than just the time of year when they’re most likely to score a deal. Redfin economists say buyers should balance choice and competition. More inventory to choose from improves the chance of finding the home that’s right for them, and more competition creates more urgency and requires stronger offers to win a home–decreasing the likelihood that buyers will get a deal. The table below shows three key moments for homebuyers–most new listings, most inventory, and best deals–across major U.S. metro areas. 

Methodology 

To identify the best time to buy, this Home Economics and Redfin analysis focuses on the seasonal indexes for three metrics: new listings, fresh inventory, and the average discount. 

• Most new listings: the week when the flow of new listings is greatest relative to the annual average.
• Most  fresh inventory: the week the stock of active listings with 60 days or less on market is greatest relative to the annual average.
• Best deals: To identify the period with the “best deals” we identify the moment when the average discount (original list price divided by final sale price) reaches an “inflection point,” meaning it slows or shrinks heading into late fall or winter. We characterize this moment as reflecting the best deals since buyers typically have ample inventory to choose from while discounts approach a local maximum.  To identify these moments, we first fit a smoothed curve to the average discount seasonal index for each region to remove week-to-week noise. Starting from the spring trough—the week when homes sell closest to (or above) their list price—we find the week of maximum slope, representing the period of fastest improvement in the average discount. We then identify the first subsequent week where the slope falls below 10% of that maximum, marking the point where average discounts have largely plateaued. For metros where the slope never drops below this threshold (i.e., discounts continue to grow aggressively through year-end), we use the week of the overall peak discount instead.