President Trump said this week that he is considering removing capital gains tax for home sales. Home sellers who lived in their home for two of the past five years can currently exclude up to $250,000 in capital gains from their taxable income as a single filer, or up to $500,000 as a couple filing jointly. Redfin’s Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather analyzes how eliminating the tax could impact the housing market.
Seniors who delayed selling their homes to avoid a tax bill may decide to sell, or to take advantage of their equity
- A large share of baby boomers and the silent generation say they never want to sell their homes, but that may start to change if capital gains can be avoided.
- For example, a single senior who has owned their home for 30 years in Los Angeles, and seen its value rise from $100,000 to $3 million, would potentially owe hundreds of thousands of dollars in capital gains tax if they sold. Removing the capital gains tax would be a significant incentive for them to sell.
- On the other hand, seniors may continue to postpone selling and cash out more of their equity through a loan instead—knowing the proceeds from an eventual sale will be higher without the capital gains tax.
Homeowners on the cusp of the capital-gains exemption cutoff may delay selling under the new rule
- Under current rules homeowners can avoid paying capital gains tax by selling before their equity reaches the $250,000/$500,000 limits, or by making improvements that they can deduct from their tax basis—like adding a swimming pool, an ADU, or solar panels.
- If the capital gains tax is removed, homeowners who were previously on the cusp of the exemption threshold will no longer be as financially motivated to either sell their home, or to make major improvements.
People could use the extra equity to buy newly built homes
- New construction is expensive and having to pay capital gains on the home you are selling hurts your budget when buying a more expensive home.
- If the capital gains tax goes away, move-up buyers will have more money to either buy a new home, or to build a dream home.
- However, while this may benefit some homeowners, if we really want to increase new construction in America, it would be more effective to subsidize development or give tax credits to buyers of new construction.
Less wealthy Americans may be left to pick up the tab for the tax cut
- Removing the capital gains tax would be a tax break for wealthy homeowners, but may come at the expense of other taxpayers.
- The government will still need to collect enough in taxes to fund itself, so removing a source of income (like the capital gains tax) means money will need to be collected from somewhere else (e.g. through other taxes), or spending will have to be cut.
- It is true that some elderly homeowners need the proceeds of their home sale to pay for expensive end-of-life care, and removing capital gains may help them do that more effectively. But elderly renters struggle with the same expenses. Cutting capital gains on home sales would only help solve the high cost of end-of-life care for one segment of America’s senior population.
