Even though mortgage rates are sitting near their lowest level in a year, house hunters are spooked by stubbornly high home prices and jitters about a possible recession and the government shutdown.
New listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 4.1% year over year during the four weeks ending October 12, the biggest increase in over four months.
More sellers are entering the market because they’re hoping lower mortgage rates and a small improvement in affordability will attract buyers. The weekly average mortgage rate is 6.3%, just shy of its lowest level in a year.
Buyers Stay in the Shadows, Spooked By Financial Jitters and Rising Prices
Pending home sales are moving in the opposite direction, falling 1.2% year over year, the biggest decline in over five months. Homes are also taking a long time to sell, with the typical home sitting on the market for 48 days before going under contract, a week longer than last year.
Many buyers are still sitting on the sidelines due to stubbornly high sale prices and economic uncertainty. The median home-sale price is up 1.9% year over year, the second-biggest increase in six months, keeping payments elevated even though they’re down from their all-time high. Pair that with widespread financial unease amid the government shutdown, concerns about tariffs and recession jitters, and many Americans are opting against making the biggest purchase of their life.
“Buyers are hesitant because of concerns about job security and high mortgage rates,” said Jo Chavez, a Redfin Premier agent in Kansas City, MO. “Even though rates have come down from their peak, a lot of people are waiting for sub-6% rates before they buy. And in Kansas City, where there are tens of thousands of government jobs, furloughs and potential layoffs are hitting hard. One client who works for the federal government started house hunting two years ago, then paused when he was furloughed last year. He had just started looking again, but now he’s not sure if he’s going to buy because his job is uncertain; he may be relocated out of state.”
Washington, D.C. Pending Sales Are Falling More Than They Are Nationwide
In the Washington, D.C. metro area, home to hundreds of thousands of federal employees, homebuying demand is taking a hit as workers worry about their jobs. The U.S. government partially shut down on October 1 after lawmakers were unable to agree on a budget, leading to pay suspension for roughly 2 million federal workers nationwide, some furloughed and some expected to work without compensation for the time being. The White House started laying off federal workers last week.
Though federal workers are spread throughout the country, the lion’s share are in D.C. and surrounding parts of Maryland and Virginia. Pending home sales in D.C. are down 6.7% year over year, and the typical home is taking 43 days to go under contract–nine days longer than last year.
On the flip side, new listings are up 9.8% year over year, the third-biggest increase of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, as some locals try to offload their homes.
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
| Indicators of homebuying demand and activity | ||||
| Value (if applicable) | Recent change | Year-over-year change | Source | |
| Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.27% (Oct. 15) | Up from 12-month low of 6.13% three weeks earlier | Essentially unchanged from 6.26% | Mortgage News Daily |
| Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.3% (week ending Oct. 9) | Down from 6.34% a week earlier | Down marginally from 6.32% | Freddie Mac |
| Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) | Down 3% from a week earlier (as of week ending Oct. 10) | Up 20% | Mortgage Bankers Association | |
| Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index | Up about 2% from a month earlier (as of week ending Oct. 12) | Down 10% | A measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents | |
| Google searches of “homes for sale” | Up 18% from a month earlier (as of Oct. 13) | Up more than 20% | Google Trends | |
| Touring activity | Up 15% from the start of the year (as of Oct. 13) | At this time last year, it was down 2% from the start of 2024 | ShowingTime | |
Key housing-market data
| U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Oct. 12, 2025
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
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| Four weeks ending Oct. 12, 2025 | Year-over-year change | Notes | |
| Median sale price | $389,750 | 1.9% | Biggest increase in over 6 months, except the 4 weeks ending Sept. 28 |
| Median asking price | $399,947 | 2.3% | |
| Median monthly mortgage payment | $2,564 at a 6.3% mortgage rate | 1.1% | Nearly $300 below May’s record high |
| Pending sales | 78,677 | -1.2% | Biggest decline in 5 months |
| New listings | 89,756 | 4.1% | Biggest increase in over 4 months |
| Active listings | 1,205,710 | 7.5% | Smallest increase since Feb. 2024 |
| Months of supply | 4.5 | +0.3 pts. | 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions |
| Share of homes off market in two weeks | 30.8% | Down from 33% | |
| Median days on market | 48 | +7 days | |
| Share of homes sold above list price | 23.2% | Down from 26% | |
| Average sale-to-list price ratio | 98.3% | Down from 98.7% | |
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Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Oct. 12, 2025 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Metros with biggest year-over-year increases | Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases | Notes | |
| Median sale price | Cleveland (12%)
Detroit (8.9%) Providence, RI (7.2%) Anaheim, CA (6.4%) Warren, MI (6.4%) |
Austin, TX (-3.8%)
Dallas (-3.6%) Atlanta (-2.5%) Jacksonville, FL (-2.2%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-1.9%) |
Declined in 12 metros |
| Pending sales | Tampa, FL (15.9%)
West Palm Beach, FL (13.7%) San Francisco (10.8%) Pittsburgh (10.6%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (7%) |
San Antonio (-15.8%)
Seattle (-15.2%) Denver (-12.7%) Las Vegas (-9.7%) New York (-6.9%) |
Pending sales rose most in coastal Florida largely
because two major hurricanes stalled the state’s housing market at this time last year |
| New listings | Tampa, FL (25.5%)
Pittsburgh (11.4%) Washington, D.C. (9.8%) West Palm Beach, FL (9.8%) Philadelphia (9.4%) |
Denver (-11.8%)
San Francisco (-9.3%) Anaheim, CA (-8.1%) Nashville, TN (-7.9%) Riverside, CA (-7.7%) |
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Refer to our metrics definition page for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.
