Pending home sales posted their biggest decline in nearly a year, despite the median U.S. housing payment dropping to its lowest level in five months. Would-be homebuyers are waiting for clarity about the NAR settlement, the presidential election and whether mortgage rates will fall more.
Pending home sales fell 6.9% during the four weeks ending August 25, the biggest annual decline in nearly a year. That’s despite the median monthly U.S. housing payment falling to its lowest level since February as weekly average mortgage rates drop to their lowest level in 15 months.
Sales aren’t yet improving because many would-be homebuyers are playing the waiting game. Redfin agents report that house hunters are out there touring homes, but some of them are hesitant to buy right now. Would-be buyers are waiting for one or all of the following:
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- Clarity on the NAR settlement. The new rules for how agents, buyers and sellers negotiate agent fees went into effect on August 17. Some would-be buyers and sellers are waiting to see how these rules play out before getting into the market. “Some buyers have likely been scared off by agents falsely claiming that the new NAR rules require an exclusive buyer representation agreement just to tour a home,” said Jason Aleem, Redfin’s chief of real estate services. “At Redfin, we make sure buyers understand our fees before they tour, but we would never lock you into working with us before we’ve had a chance to win your business.”
- Lower home prices. Even though monthly payments are declining, home-sale prices are just a few thousand dollars shy of early July’s record high. That’s partly because inventory is losing momentum; the total number of homes for sale posted its smallest year-over-year increase in five months.
- Lower mortgage rates. Some homebuyers are hoping mortgage rates will decline more than they already have after the Fed cuts interest rates in September. (It’s worth noting that if mortgage rates do drop significantly, it could lead to more competition and higher home prices.)
- The outcome of the presidential election. Some house hunters are hesitant to make a big purchase amid this year’s political uncertainty, and believe the outcome of the presidential election could change the course of economic, housing and other policies that affect their decision to move.
“I expect more buyers and sellers to jump into the market in a few months, once everyone has a better understanding of how the new NAR rules will play out in actual real-estate deals,” said Fernanda Kriese, a Redfin Premier agent in Las Vegas. “The election and the drop in mortgage rates are also delaying buyers; a lot of them are waiting on the sidelines until November, hoping to get a lower rate and maybe more homes to choose from.”
Mortgage-purchase applications are up 1% week over week on a seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting that at least some buyers are coming off the sidelines–but applications are still down 9% from a year ago.
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
| Indicators of homebuying demand and activity | ||||
| Value (if applicable) | Recent change | Year-over-year change | Source | |
| Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.37% (Aug. 28) | Near lowest level since spring 2023 | Down from 7.29% | Mortgage News Daily |
| Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.46% (week ending Aug. 22) | Lowest level since May 2023 | Down from 7.23% | Freddie Mac |
| Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) | Increased 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending Aug. 23) | Down 9% | Mortgage Bankers Association | |
| Touring activity | Up 6% from the start of the year (as of Aug. 19) | At this time last year, it was up 2% from the start of 2023 | ShowingTime, a home touring technology company | |
| Google searches for “home for sale” | Up 10% from a month earlier (as of Aug. 26) | Down 3% | Google Trends | |
| We excluded Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index this week to ensure the accuracy of our data. It will be back next week. | ||||
Key housing-market data
| U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending August 25, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
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| Four weeks ending August 25, 2024 | Year-over-year change | Notes | |
| Median sale price | $389,975 | 3.6% | Up about $1,000 from a week earlier, but $6,000 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending July 7 |
| Median asking price | $395,500 | 5.5% | |
| Median monthly mortgage payment | $2,568 at a 6.46% mortgage rate | -0.4% | Lowest level since Feb.; $258 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28 |
| Pending sales | 79,279 | -6.9% | Biggest decline since Oct. 2023 |
| New listings | 89,241 | 3% | |
| Active listings | 990,630 | 16.7% | Smallest increase since April |
| Months of supply | 3.6 | +0.7 pts. | 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
| Share of homes off market in two weeks | 35.8% | Down from 41% | |
| Median days on market | 35 | +5 days | |
| Share of homes sold above list price | 28.6% | Down from 34% | |
| Share of homes with a price drop | 6.8% | +1.4 pts. | Highest level on record |
| Average sale-to-list price ratio | 99.1% | -0.6 pts. | |
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Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending August 25, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Metros with biggest year-over-year increases | Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases | Notes | |
| Median sale price | Philadelphia (15.1%)
Milwaukee (10.8%) Anaheim, CA (10.1%) Nassau County, NY (9.7%) Providence, RI (8.5%) |
Austin, TX (-2.8%)
Fort Worth, TX (-1.5%) Tampa, FL (-0.6%) San Francisco, CA (-0.5%) San Diego, CA (-0.3%) San Antonio(-0.3%) Nashville, TN (-0.1%) |
Declined in 7 metros |
| Pending sales | San Francisco (9.1%)
Boston (8.2%) San Jose, CA (7.1%) Los Angeles (7%) Riverside, CA (5.4%) |
West Palm Beach, FL (-16.3%)
Atlanta (-15.8%) Miami (-15.3%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-15%) Tampa, FL (-14.5%) |
Increased in 11 metros |
| New listings | San Diego (15.2%)
Los Angeles (13.7%) San Jose, CA (12.7%) Phoenix (11.1%) Montgomery County, PA (10.9%) |
Atlanta (-16.7%)
Austin, TX (-8.9%) San Antonio (-8.2%) Newark, NJ (-7.2%) Tampa, FL (-6.7%) |
Declined in 14 metros |
Refer to our metrics definition page for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.
