- 21% of U.S. mortgaged homeowners have a rate of 6% or higher, the highest share in a decade. 20% have a rate under 3%, the lowest share in 5 years.
- The shift in mortgage-rate distribution reflects the fact that rates have been above 6% for nearly 4 years.
- Redfin economists say this could be an opportune time to refinance: Rates are now below 6% for the first time in three and a half years.
- For home sellers, the lock-in effect is fading. But some homeowners still feel locked in: 16% of homeowners are staying put rather than moving because they don’t want to give up their low rate, per a Redfin survey.
For the first time in five years, more U.S. homeowners have a mortgage rate above 6% than a rate below 3%.
More than one in five (21.2%) mortgaged U.S. homeowners had a 6%-plus rate in the third quarter, up from 17.1% a year earlier and the highest share since 2015. A slightly lower share (20%) of mortgaged homeowners have a rate under 3%, the smallest share since the end of 2021.
That’s the second quarter in a row 6%-plus rates overtook sub-3% rates: In Q2 2025, 20.3% of homeowners had a 6%-plus rate, versus 20.2% who had rates under 3%. This marks a reversal from the pandemic and its immediate aftermath; the last time more homeowners had high rates than ultra-low rates was the third quarter of 2020, when rates were plummeting during the pandemic.
This is according to a Redfin analysis of data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s National Mortgage Database through the third quarter of 2025, the most recent period for which data is available.
To look at the data another way, 78.8% of homeowners have a rate under 6%, the lowest share since 2015.
The Shift Reflects How Long Rates Have Been Elevated
The share of homeowners with a 6%-plus rate is rising because until this week, when they dropped to 5.98%, mortgage rates had been sitting above 6% since September 2022. The longer rates stay high, the more people have high rates.
On the other end of the spectrum, the share of homeowners with 3% or lower rates surged at the start of the pandemic, when mortgage rates plummeted to record lows. That prompted many homebuyers to move, taking on a new, low mortgage rate, and prompted many homeowners to refinance into a low rate. But now that four years have passed since sub-3% mortgage rates were available, they’re less common. People who are buying homes are taking on higher rates.
For Homeowners With a 6%-Plus Rate, Refinancing May Save Money
The weekly average mortgage rate is 5.98%, down from 6.76% a year ago and down from a two-decade high of 7.79% in October 2023.
Refinancing isn’t as popular as it was in 2020 and 2021, when homeowners could get a record-low rate. But for some homeowners–the 21% of them who currently have rates above 6%–refinancing at today’s rates may make financial sense.
“For homeowners with a rate north of 6%, this is a moment to run the numbers,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research. “With average rates hovering at or just below 6%, some borrowers may be able to lower their monthly payment or their long-term interest costs by refinancing. It’s not the once-in-a-generation opportunity we saw in 2020, but it could provide meaningful savings.”
A lot of homeowners are getting the memo: Refinance applications are up 150% year over year. Redfin economists expect more and more Americans to refinance as the year goes on, especially if rates stay around 6% or drop lower. The best time to refinance a home loan depends both on personal circumstances and mortgage market conditions; here’s advice from Rocket Mortgage on determining the best time to refinance.
The Lock-In Effect Is Fading
The spread in mortgage rates shifting toward the higher end of the spectrum is also meaningful for homeowners thinking of selling. For the last several years, many Americans have felt locked in by their low mortgage rates, unwilling or unable to give up their 3% rate to move and take on a higher one.
But now that rates have been above 6% for much longer than they were under 3%, many people have grown accustomed to high rates and decided to move on, which is reflected in the rise in new listings over the last year.
And with rates at their lowest level in nearly four years–albeit still double pandemic-era lows–the math has improved enough for some homeowners to make a move.
Redfin agents in some parts of the country say some homeowners have given up on waiting for mortgage rates to come down significantly; many people who have been considering moving decided to go for it with rates closer to 6% than 7%.
But some homeowners are still feeling locked in. Roughly one in six (16%) U.S. homeowners say they’re staying put in their current home rather than moving because they don’t want to give up their low mortgage rate. That’s from a November 2025 Redfin survey fielded by Ipsos; the question asked respondents who said they don’t plan on selling their homes soon why they intend to stay put. Of the 12 options, “I don’t want to give up my low mortgage rate” was the fifth-most commonly cited, after “I just like my home and have no reason to move”, “My home is almost or completely paid off”, “Home prices are now too high,” and “My children or other family members are still living in my home.”
Here’s the full breakdown of where today’s homeowners fall on the mortgage-rate spectrum:
- 6% or above: 21.1% of mortgaged U.S. homeowners have a rate below 6%, down from a record low of 7.3 in the second quarter of 2022
- 5%-5.99%: 10.2%, the highest share since the third quarter of 2020 (except Q2 2025, when it was 10.3%)
- 4%-4.99%: 17.1%, the lowest share on record (before the pandemic, this was the most common mortgage-rate bucket)
- 3%-3.99%: 31.5%, the lowest share since Q2 2016
- Below 3%: 20%, the lowest share since Q1 2021
Methodology
This report is based on a Redfin analysis of data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database, which is a nationally representative 5% sample of all first-lien, closed-end purchased or refinanced residential mortgages in the U.S. The third quarter of 2025 is the most recent period for which data on outstanding mortgages is available. We assume each loan represents a homeowner with a mortgage, though some homeowners may have multiple loans.
While the prevailing mortgage rate for homebuyers often changes quickly, rates for existing homeowners don’t typically change significantly from quarter to quarter, as most buyers take out 30-year mortgages. Roughly 60% of U.S. homeowners have an outstanding mortgage.
The stat about the share of homeowners who feel locked into a low mortgage rate is from a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Ipsos in November 2025. Here’s the full survey questionnaire for questions referenced in this report.
