September’s CPI report came in just a touch above expectations, but not enough to change our outlook for the Fed’s next move. They’re still unlikely to hike interest rates next month, and mortgage rates should remain about where they are.
Overview of latest inflation report: The September consumer price index (CPI), the latest overall measure of the pace of inflation, came in just a touch over expectations. But the core CPI (which excludes food and energy costs) came in right in line with expectations at 0.3% monthly growth and 4.1% annual growth. Shelter costs surprisingly jumped to 0.6% monthly growth from 0.3% last month. But given that house prices and rent prices are relatively stable, it is unlikely shelter inflation will remain this high in future months..
It’s still unlikely the Fed will hike interest rates next month: September’s inflation report shouldn’t change much–if anything–in terms of the Fed’s outlook, interest rates or housing market activity. A 0.3% month-over-month inflation rate is a bit above where it needs to be to hit the Fed’s target of 2% to 2.5% annual price growth, and above the 0.2% readings we had gotten for a few months, but the Fed expects the path downward to be bumpy. Overall, inflation is still on a trend down to where the Fed wants it to be. And given how much rates have risen these past few weeks (even with the slight pullback this week), I don’t think this data will cause the Fed to hike. Several Fed officials said as much earlier this week. The 10-year treasury yield was at ~3.8 after the July rate hike and at ~4.3 when the Fed met in September. Last week the 10-year treasury yield was flirting with 4.8, and right now it’s in the 4.6-4.7 range, so it’s still up significantly from when the Fed was projecting another rate hike.
But it’s also unlikely the Fed will cut rates anytime soon: Combined with last Friday’s jobs report, I think this keeps the Fed on the same path: They’re not expecting much in the way of cuts next year. It also means that markets will continue to believe rates will stay higher for longer. The economy is still showing significant resilience, bordering on overheating. There are still no signs of weakness in the overall economy that would cause the Fed to bring rates down.
Expect mortgage rates to remain elevated: For the housing market, this piece of news fits in with what we thought yesterday. Mortgage rates remain unlikely to come down significantly in the near future, so we expect homebuyers to remain somewhat wary of entering the market. But we are seeing a small uptick in selling activity as homeowners realize rates are staying elevated into the near future; some homeowners, even if they’re locked into a low mortgage rate, aren’t waiting any longer to list. In recent weeks we’ve seen new listings inch up, and sellers who price appropriately are attracting some buyers because inventory remains near historic lows.
