Mortgage rates will stay flat today following an as-expected inflation report that keeps the Fed on track for a rate cut on September 17. Inflation remains above target and rising, at least partly due to tariffs, but today’s reading is not hot enough to derail a rate cut after the last jobs report. The expected rate cut is already priced into current mortgage rates.
Core (excluding food and energy) inflation rose 0.32% month-over-month in July, in line with expectations, but still the highest reading since January. Overall, the impact of tariffs is evident, but the bulk of the impact still hasn’t hit.
- Core goods, the key group to watch for evidence of tariff effects, came in at 0.2% in July, a warm, but not overly concerning level. Within goods, it was a mixed bag with some categories showing big spikes and others remaining pretty muted.
- Some examples: Household furnishing was up 0.7% and footwear up 1.4%, but apparel was low at 0.1%. Furniture and bedding was up 0.9%, but appliances were down 0.9%.
- Services inflation ticked up from 0.3% in June to 0.4% in July, but much of it came from airfares rebounding 4.0% in July after several months of large declines.
- Shelter inflation, the largest category in core CPI, has finally reached prepandemic levels on a three-month moving average basis after lagging market rents by about two years.
- The CPI data, along with what companies are reporting, make it clear that domestic companies are currently taking on the lion’s share of the tariff burden. They are delaying the pass through to consumers, perhaps because of higher post-pandemic margins, but the question is: do they eventually have to pass it on? When and if that shoe drops, inflation will need to increase from current levels, which are already above the Fed’s target.
Barring very unexpected data in early September, the Fed is now on track for a rate cut at their September 17 meeting. It’s important to note, however, that the expected rate cut is already fully priced into today’s mortgage rates. That means mortgage rates are unlikely to move even when the Fed cut occurs—unless economic data necessitates more or fewer cuts.
- Even though there is more than a month until the next Fed meeting—allowing for one more jobs report and one more inflation report—bond markets are betting the rate cut is locked in now because Chair Powell will be giving his all important speech at Jackson Hole next Friday August 22. Based on past experience, he will likely set the stage for the September rate cut then, leaving himself just a little wiggle room in case the September jobs and CPI reports both come in very hot.
- The Fed’s job is not clear cut right now. Some would argue that inflation has not jumped as much as expected after the initial tariff announcements on April 2 (“Liberation Day”), and the labor market is weakening, so they should get on with bringing rates down to more neutral levels. The other camp would argue that inflation is above target and actually rising with the worst yet to come, so cutting rates seems misguided. In the end, the Fed will likely cut to stabilize the labor market because the outlook on inflation is hazy and any inflation that materializes from tariffs is likely transitory. However, if that assumption is wrong, rate hikes might be on the docket for 2026.
